Mbeki warns Mugabe of humiliating end
July 27, 2008
President Mbeki (L) and President Mugabe in Harare.
By R W Johnson
JOHANNESBURG – The president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, has been warned by Thabo Mbeki, the South African president, that he faces prosecution for the crimes he has committed during his 28 years in office unless he signs a deal to give up all effective power.
Mbeki, who has done all he can to shield and support Mugabe for the past eight years, has come under overwhelming western pressure and has had to tell Mugabe that he could no longer protect him and his key cronies from being charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The power-sharing talks between Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are shrouded in secrecy. But The Sunday Times has learnt that Mugabe, who has vowed that Tsvangirai will never be in government and that “only God can remove me from power”, faces humiliation over the terms of the deal that he will be forced to sign next month.
He will remain as president in name only and all real power will be held by a 20-member cabinet under Tsvangirai as prime minister. The opposition MDC will have 11 cabinet posts to nine for Mugabe’s Zanu-PF.
All Mugabe’s senior officials in the army, police and intelligence services, who have unleashed a campaign of terror since the MDC won a disputed victory in the elections held in March, will be dismissed.
Observers caution, however, that bringing Mugabe to justice could be protracted since Zimbabwe does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICC. Any investigation would require a referral from the United Nations Security Council, which would probably be blocked by China or Russia.
The transitional government will have close ties to a group of western donor nations known as the Fishmongers Group, set up a year ago on Britain’s initiative. It includes the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia. China declined an invitation to join.
The decisive showdown came last week when Mugabe realised that his power was broken. On Monday Mbeki’s emissary, Sidney Mufamadi, a South African cabinet minister, arrived in Harare to read the riot act to Zanu-PF officials.
According to the officials who were present, he told them bluntly: “You don’t have a government. You can’t summon your parliament. You have no legitimate president and thus you can have no cabinet. You cannot behave as you have been doing. Real talks have to start right away.”
The Zanu-PF negotiators, still congratulating themselves on Mugabe’s spurious “victory” in last month’s stolen election, were taken aback.
Worse was to follow. Mbeki flew to Harare and said that Mugabe and Tsvangirai must meet to sign a memorandum of understanding committing themselves to serious negotiations and to share power.
The talks, he insisted, must be concluded within two weeks and the two men must meet, shake hands and sign the memorandum.
Mugabe had never been willing to meet Tsvangirai, let alone shake his hand. According to leading Zanu-PF sources, he is frightened of going on trial for human rights crimes, particularly since an arrest warrant was issued against Omar Bashir, Sudan’s president, earlier this month. Under Mbeki’s pressure Mugabe gave in.
He agreed that Tsvangirai should come to State House, the president’s official residence. Tsvangirai refused to attend, saying that to do so would be to acknowledge Mugabe as the legitimate president of Zimbabwe: he would sign only on neutral ground.
Mugabe had to be persuaded to leave State House and was driven to Rainbow Towers, the former Sheraton hotel in central Harare, to sign the document and glumly shake hands with a triumphant Tsvangirai.
The power of the western donor nations has grown as the Zimbabwean economy has catapulted towards meltdown. Hyperinflation means that a newly introduced Z$100 billion note is not enough to buy a loaf of bread.
The latest harvest has been dismal, bread may soon run out and widespread famine is a threat. The World Food Programme estimates that by early next year 5.1m people could be facing starvation.
The Fishmongers Group, which is based in Holland, stands powerfully in the wings and in effect has a veto over the negotiations. Planning is already far advanced for a post-Mugabe future, with individual countries agreeing to focus their efforts on education, health and other sectors. A total of £2 billion has been pledged to date.
The transitional government will be obliged to follow edicts laid down by the group. They will insist that the new government gives full and equal access to food aid, plans a return to financial stability, restores the rule of law with an independent judiciary and respects property rights. This will mean that the farms stolen by Mugabe and his cronies will either have to be restored to their owners or compensation will be paid.
The group will also insist that the government be committed to freedom of the press and hold fair elections within 18 months. The group will not release even a dollar to a government that includes anyone guilty either of gross corruption or human rights violations. Zanu-PF will be hard pushed to find nine ministers who qualify.
The new dispensation will bring to a halt the campaign of terror unleashed by Mugabe since he was defeated in the first round of the presidential elections in March.
A diplomatic source said: “The toughest part of the negotiations is going to be the question of immunity from prosecution for Mugabe and, say, the top 20 members of the junta.”
Another diplomat said: “It’s ironic. Mbeki could and should have brought Mugabe to heel eight years ago. It would have saved a lot of lives.”
Professor Lawrence Schlemmer, South Africa’s leading social scientist, said that the deal would be of “epochal importance” to the whole southern African region: “The West could have just walked away from another African disaster. Instead, they are showing a huge commitment to democracy in this region.”
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Zanu is in a very bad state but Mugabe and his people are very volatile and as long as they can sustain a good life they don’t care about Zimbo’s. For the land question Zimbo’s must be equal white and black. Before the land resettlement Zim was still quite unfair and a lot of whites were seriously racist and a lot of educated black people were subjected to this and lost their jobs on account of their race. MDC has said they will not inherit the situation on the ground and are not necessarily going to hand the farms back. Farms should be given to Zimbabweans(patriotic whites and blacks with a mandate to build the economy) who will use them to better the economy, so this rules out the war veterans. The previous land reform was haphazard and unstructured hence it destroyed the economy.
No one is adverse to black empowerment not even the whites but we have to be careful of propelling the racism that currently exists. This is because of ignorance on behalf of many Zanuoids who see the British as devils, the same people who donate the food aid they survive on. However we have to be careful to ensure that farms are equally distributed and that everyone gets a fair piece of the pie and no one is adverse to this.
Vukani Madoda, I have got nothing against you, my fellow compatriot, but are you not Jonathan Moyo in disguise? Your rants seem always directed at anyone and everyone who reports/says anything that can be deemed as anti-zanu. You sound like you’re trying to defend the indefensible, hence the comparison with Johno.
The article states:
“The transitional government will be obliged to follow edicts laid down by the group. They will insist that the new government gives full and equal access to food aid, plans a return to financial stability, restores the rule of law with an independent judiciary and respects property rights. This will mean that the farms stolen by Mugabe and his cronies will either have to be restored to their owners or compensation will be paid.
The group will also insist that the government be committed to freedom of the press and hold fair elections within 18 months. The group will not release even a dollar to a government that includes anyone guilty either of gross corruption or human rights violations. Zanu-PF will be hard pushed to find nine ministers who qualify.”
Now tell me what is wrong with any of this, unless you directly benefited from Zanu’s shenanigans, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can blame the conditions they want met before they can release the pledged dollars. Mind you the backbone of our economy was killed by this so called land reform, in which Mugabe and his cronies seized several farms each which are lying barren without any agricultural activity going on. In fact, its public knowledge some of these perpetrators would seize a farm because they were attracted by the bungalow on the farm.
Now how stupid is that; someone acquiring a farm in order to live in the beautiful property on the farm and not interested in the potential of the land itself. If Mugabe’s controversial land reform had benefited the masses then that would have been a different issue as reversing that would mean going against what the people fought for, but I don’t know of any ordinary Zimbbabwean I can think of who got even a piece of land, save for politicians only and their relatives.
To add insult to injury the same people who invaded six or seven farms each are not utilising them, so why not reverse that and implement it in an equitable manner for all to benefit? And please don’t forget that its not compulsory to follow the laid out conditions of this group, if you need their money, then you have to do as they say, or chose to carry on the Zanu way and stay broke. And in all of this they did not demand a single thing for themselves, but for the betterment of Zimbabwean citizens. Now tell me, what is wrong with that???
Zanu is arrogant as they are not the ones feeling the brunt of the economic turmoil in the country, its ordinary, hard working citizens. Zanu cronies dont know of power shortages, they got generators at their properties; they don’t suffer from food shortages, they just go to neighboring countries to shop with the forex reserves Gono gives them, and is it any wonder they can afford to tell the West to go hang in light of that?
The only person I really feel sorry for is Grace Mugabe. Her demented husband is 84 years old, at the twilight of his life, beleaguered by 3 decades of blood spilling, haunted by what could have been, wondering where he lost the plot, and acutely aware of his mortality as the years race by.
It would have been easy if Nhamodzenyika (born 1966 -?) had not died at that tender age…maybe, just maybe he would have swung a Kabila-Castro type of dynastic power handover. In a few short years he will be 90, then God willing a hundred…and we all know his mental powers are fast receding. Meanwhile, Grace is in the prime of early middle age, and Bob`s kids are just children. What will become of the young family if God decides this old man`s time is up? To Malaysia maybe? Did i hear someone say Mengistu? is that really a life to look forward to? We know how hot blooded Grace has always been, and its a fair guess after the shortest possible mourning period, she will want a man about the house.
You see, us mere mortals may fail to deal with this old man, but fate has a cruel twist in store for this family…
Guys, lets be frank, Cornered Mugabe is very dangerous. I dont believe in this document, this is wishful thinking on the part of the writer. I will wait till the agreement is on the table for implementation.
Thank you
Chairman Mao its unfair of you to be tribalistic over the land issue, it even more unfair of you to think for the MDC, and its grossly unfair of you not to see the price tag on Zimbabwe handwritten by the Fishmongers Group which clearly intends to parcel out our birthright to their kith and kin. Being the chairman that you are Mao, you should not fail to see that the inclusion of the Fishmongers Group in Zimbabwean issues is gravely suspect of intentions to exploit and manipulate the Zimbabwe crisis to their own benefit rather than to the benefit of Zimbabwean citizens such as you and me. Please read the article again……slowly.
Shumba yeNjanja, please leave me and Jonathan Moyo alone! How would you like it if I started gossiping that you are the pimp from Njanja who never got the 30 pieces of silver you expected from the sale of your amazing disGrace? Now let’s deal with issues and not delve into trivialities that would make a whole Shumba like you look like a nincompoop.
Zanu-PF doesn’t even need to be defended by anyone; that job is being perfectly executed for them by fly-by-night formations such as the Fishmongers Group. In the passage you quoted in your comment, you perhaps failed to grip the meaning or the essence of what this Fishmongers Group will effectively do e.g.
1. laid down edicts for the TG
2. it will insist, insist, insist…..insist
Now tell me Shumba yeNjanja, who will be running the country? or better still who will have bought the country? or maybe the transition will also take us from being a country to being fish and being a big fish for that matter, the one fish which the Fishmongers Group will shameless plunder and devour, scales and all!
Its true that Mugabe is now in a tight corner.Even if he maintains his arrogance,what is there for him to rule?
However i dont believe in this document!
To shumba YeNjanja, i see you are trying to protect any critics for the so called financiers because we are in a desperate situation but i also share the same concerns with the guy you are criticising. Why in their clause are they not indicating the issue of equitable redistribution? They are only concerned with returning the farms to the former owners or compensating them which is unfair. Let me correct you my fellow Zimbabwean if ever you are? which i doubt so much? Anyone holding a different view from the western or so called financiers are not pro Zanu PF or the Jonas like what you rightly indicated. Let’s be open-minded, mukoma and i also encourage you to use your brains widely as most Zimbabwean are known for. I for one support land reform in general not the way it was done by ZANU PF so anyone suggesting returning farms to their owners only will be directly injecting seizures in my spine. Although we are in this messy you cant compare us with the South African black masses who are in abject poverty yettheir country is one of Africa’s economic powerhouses. It just does’nt make sense to me.